The Safeguard 1st Risk Model is based on the combination of the signals generated by seven indicators, that use stock market and interest rate data as their inputs.
Our thesis is that human nature drives the market at extremes because human emotions and biases are constants that do not change through time and that history has repeatedly demonstrated it.
We have shown, through backtesting, that objective, data-derived indicators have historically identified conditions associated with market inflection points.
Based on historical data, the Safeguard 1st Risk Model outperformed Buy & Hold by providing higher returns with significantly less risk.
Using a risk model for investment decision making eliminates investing based on emotion, bias or gut feel. It is a tool that enables disciplined investing.
Although past performance is not a guarantee of future success, we believe Safeguard 1st Risk Model signals will continue to work generally as they have in the past because the major market participants --institutions and professional investors -- have not and will not be willing to make the decisive decisions that have, based on historical data, demonstrated our approach to be successful.
The objective of minimizing risk is different than the objective of market timing.